Knoxville travels down to Chattanooga for the final series

Written by Philip Stalzer

This week, the Knoxville Smokies will travel down to Chattanooga to take on the Lookouts. This series will mark the final regular season matchup between these two teams.

Game one between the two teams will start tonight at 7:15 at AT&T Field in Chattanooga.

Chattanooga has clinched its playoff berth already after having won the Southern League North in the first half. Knoxville currently sits seven games behind first place Birmingham in the North after losing four of the six games against Pensacola. The series loss put Knoxville at a 12-15 record.

Knoxville lost a couple of heartbreakers early in the series that put them down early, but were able to win the last two games with late inning heroics including a walk-off win on Sunday. The two wins could give Knoxville the momentum they need to beat up on Chattanooga and climb back into the race for the second half.

Knoxville’s overall offensive numbers look pretty underwhelming after that series against Pensacola, hitting just .208 during that series. However, they still managed to drive in 20 runs over the course of the week.

Knoxville was also able to continue getting on base at a high rate, ranking fourth in the league with a .324 OBP, helped out by their league-leading 34 walks over the last week. Unfortunately, their strikeout numbers are also some of the highest in the league during that stretch, making it difficult to drive in many of those baserunners. They continue to be one of the worst offenses in the league when it comes to hitting with runners on base. In those situations, they have just the sixth best average at .232 and the worst overall slugging percentage at .326 for the season.

Luckily, Knoxville was able to continue its base-stealing efficiency, swiping 13 bases and only getting caught twice during the previous series.

Knoxville faced some pitching difficulties last week as well. Over the course of the week, Knoxville gave up the most runs (33) by any pitching staff and the second most hits (48). Their 4.34 ERA was also the second worst during the stretch. The positive that came out of the pitching was that, while they were third in the league in walks (27), they were tied for second in strikeouts (55).

Chattanooga was one of the hottest offenses in the league over the last week. Against Columbus, Chattanooga slashed .270/.357/.439 as a team. Their 33 runs and 27 RBIs were also second in the league last week behind only Pensacola. Chattanooga also struck out the most in the Southern League last week, notching 65 strikeouts, which could play directly into the strength of Knoxville’s pitching staff.

Chattanooga’s pitching staff was not much better than Knoxville’s last week. In 49 innings, they allowed 25 runs (21 earned), good for a 3.86 ERA. They did not have crazy strikeout numbers last week, only tallying 39 (seventh most) but were able to limit the walks, allowing just 19 free passes, the best in the league over the last week.

Knoxville will look to improve its offense against what seems to be an aggressive Chattanooga pitching staff, while relying on their own pitchers' strikeout capabilities to contain Chattanooga's hitters.

Players to Watch

While Knoxville’s offense has struggled as a unit recently, there are a couple of players who have been attempting to lift the team past the slump. Most notably, BJ Murray Jr. has been on fire. While he is batting .236 on the season, the number has gone up after a stellar week at the plate for the switch hitter. Playing in all six games last week, Murray Jr. hit .280 and slugged a team best .400. Murray collected seven RBIs during the series against Pensacola and stole three bases without being caught as well. Look for Murray Jr. to carry this momentum into this week and lead his offense to a series win.

On the mound, be on the lookout for Sam Armstrong. Armstrong has been one of the most consistent starters for the Smokies all year long and is clocking in one of his best months of the season so far. Armstrong has struggled a bit this season against Chattanooga, giving up two or three runs in all three of his starts against them so far, but he will face them at least twice more this season as he is set to start Game 1 and Game 6 in Chattanooga. If he can set the tone on the mound and help grab an early series lead in Game 1, he may be able to help close out a win in Game 6 as well.

Chattanooga doesn’t seem to have a slumping hitter in its lineup right now. Most impressive over the last week, however, is likely shortstop Edwin Arroyo. During their series against Columbus, Arroyo slashed .385/.429/.615. Of his 10 hits last week, half of them went for extra bases. Normally their leadoff man, Arroyo only drove in three runs, but was an outstanding table setter. As the cherry on top, Arroyo only struck out three times the entire week. Look for him to be a big threat to start every game for Chattanooga.

While Chattanooga’s pitching staff has only been slightly better than Knoxville’s, their closer, Trevor Kuncl, was lights out last week. In three appearances out of the bullpen, Kuncl went three-for-three on save chances and allowed just one base runner via a walk in those three appearances. If Chattanooga can get the ball to Kuncl with the lead, it may be difficult for Knoxville to mount a comeback. But who knows, maybe they use some more of that late-inning magic to get past Chattanooga’s hot closer.

Probable Pitching Matchups

7/29 Tuesday, 7:15 PM ET (Food City Tuesday)

RHP Sam Armstrong (2-7, 4.62 ERA) vs RHP Jared Lyons (3-3, 2.90 ERA)

7/30 Wednesday, 7:15 PM ET (Chick-Fil-A Giveaway Wednesday)

RHP Tyler Schlaffer (1-1, 2.70 ERA) vs RHP Ryan Cardona (5-3, 4.63 ERA)

7/31 Thursday, 7:15 PM ET (Thirsty Thursday)

RHP Grant Kipp (5-3, 3.48 ERA) vs LHP TJ Sikkema (5-2, 5.60 ERA)

8/1 Friday, 7:15 PM ET (College Football Night/Fireworks Friday)

RHP Ryan Gallagher (0-0, 1.59 ERA) vs RHP Zach Willeman (2-0, 2.37 ERA)

8/2 Saturday, 7:15 PM ET (Chattanooga Wreckers Night/Spin to Win Saturday/34th Annual TVFCU Used Car Night)

(TBD) vs RHP Kevin Abel (2-7, 5.99 ERA)

8/3 Sunday, 2:15 PM ET (LEGO Designed Baseball Giveaway/Canned Food Drive Sunday)

RHP Sam Armstrong (2-7, 4.62 ERA) vs RHP Jared Lyons (3-3, 2.90 ERA)

This series could be pivotal for Knoxville’s season as they look to swing the momentum they began to gain last series into this week’s matchup. A series win could catapult them back into a race for the second half pennant while a series loss could set the team way back in the standings of the Southern League North.

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